A terrific field has turned out for Friday’s $2 million Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA at Del Mar. The most prestigious dirt race of the year for 2-year-old colts and geldings has drawn every Grade 1 winner in the division, along with a couple of Grade 3 winners and a trio of international raiders.

Who will cross the finish line in first place after 1 1/16 miles and claim the 30 qualifying points on the Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve? That’s a tough question, because the favorites, while talented and accomplished, have potential drawbacks.

We’ll start with #1 East Avenue (5-2), a beautifully bred son of Medaglia d’Oro. The bay colt is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts. He debuted at Ellis Park in a maiden special weight sprinting six furlongs and wired the field by eight lengths. Then he tackled the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and again led all the way to win by 5 1/4 lengths over the Grade 1-placed #4 Ferocious (6-1). At the time of the Breeders’ Futurity, however, the dirt track at Keeneland was arguably favoring horses who raced inside. East Avenue’s dominance may have been exaggerated by the track profile. He figures to face a tougher task over a track that plays more fairly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile while breaking from the inside post with pace rivals to his outside.

East Avenue. (Tim Sudduth/Eclipse Sportswire)

A hot pace could favor #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1), a deep-closing son of McKinzie who has rallied to win the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. The undefeated colt made an eye-catching move around the turn of the Champagne, sweeping past rivals on his way to a 2 3/4-length triumph. It’s worth noting, however, that Chancer McPatrick has yet to race around two turns, which is the configuration he’ll tackle in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Horses who successfully rally from behind in one-turn races sometimes struggle to reproduce their best form around two turns, so that’s a question mark for Chancer McPatrick.

Where does this leave us for betting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile? If the favorites are vulnerable, perhaps we can beat them with longshot #6 Citizen Bull (10-1), one of the other Grade 1 winners in the field.

A son of five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, Citizen Bull has shown impressive versatility in terms of running style. He debuted in a sprint at Del Mar, where he pressed the pace before taking over to defeat future Speakeasy Stakes runner-up Smash It by three-quarters of a length.

Citizen Bull changed tactics for his second start, rallying from sixth position to finish third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity sprinting seven furlongs. Then, after posting a couple of fast morning workouts, Citizen Bull stretched out to 1 1/16-miles for the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes presented by DK Horse and led all the way to win by two lengths.

Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. (BENOIT photo)

Citizen Bull is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a record-equaling five times. After the American Pharoah, Baffert said that Citizen Bull “really needed” his run in the Del Mar Futurity because he was “heavy, and he’s still heavy.” Baffert then voiced the belief that Citizen Bull would benefit from his run over a slow and tiring track in the American Pharoah. That certainly appears to have been the case. Citizen Bull has been training up a storm since the American Pharoah. On three occasions he’s worked out five furlongs at Santa Anita, recording swift times of :59, :59 4/5, and :58 4/5. Two of those morning moves were bullets.

The stage appears set for Citizen Bull to deliver a career-best performance in the American Pharoah. Drawing outside East Avenue affords him options for working out a favorable pace-stalking trip. If East Avenue tires after facing pace pressure from fellow speed horses like #2 Getaway Car (20-1) or possibly #5 Jonathan’s Way (9-2), Citizen Bull can wear him down and spring an upset at double-digit odds.

We won’t overcomplicate our Breeders’ Cup Juvenile betting strategy. Since Citizen Bull’s 10-1 odds are enticing, a simple win bet is in order. We’ll also play him on top of exacta tickets using East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick for second place, and if you’re playing on a larger budget, we’ll throw in a saver exacta using Citizen Bull for second place.

            Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

            $8 to win on #6 Citizen Bull

            What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 9th race, $8 to win on 6

            $2 exacta: 6 with 1,10 ($4)

            What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 9th race, $2 exacta 6 with 1,10

            Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget

            $16 to win on #6 Citizen Bull

            What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 9th race, $16 to win on 6

            $4 exacta: 6 with 1,10 ($8)

            What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 9th race, $4 exacta 6 with 1,10

            $6 exacta: 1,10 with 6 ($12)

            What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 9th race, $6 exacta 1,10 with 6

            Good luck, and enjoy the race!